In September 2026, Orinda's active detached listings were asking an average of $790 per square foot, and the homes that actually closed that month sold at an average of $746. The two figures differ by $44 a foot, which comes to about $132,000 on a 3,000-square-foot house, and that gap is where most fall negotiations in Orinda start. Most buyers try to judge it against the median sale price, and Orinda's median is a poor tool for that this year. The reason is a change in which homes are selling. Through September, sales in the $1.3 million to $2 million range have fallen by about a third, and the neighboring towns show nothing similar.
Where Orinda's sales went this year
The Bay East Association of REALTORS® September 2026 report for Orinda breaks year-to-date detached sales into price bands. Lined up against the same period in 2025, it looks like this:
| Price band | 2025 YTD sales | 2026 YTD sales | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $1.3M | 12 | 21 | +9 |
| $1.3M to $1.699M | 48 | 36 | −12 |
| $1.7M to $1.999M | 38 | 21 | −17 |
| $2M to $2.999M | 53 | 50 | −3 |
| Over $3M | 32 | 34 | +2 |
| Total | 183 | 162 | −21 |
Orinda has recorded 21 fewer detached sales than at this point last year, and the two bands between $1.3 million and $2 million account for 29 lost sales on their own, falling from 86 to 57. The $2 million-and-up segment barely changed, with 84 sales this year against 85 last year. Sales under $1.3 million went the other direction, from 12 to 21.
Last year, the middle tier made up close to half of everything that sold in Orinda. This year it is about 35 percent. The Bay East tables count closings and do not record why sellers in that range listed less or why buyers there closed less. So treat this as an observed pattern, without a cause anyone can document yet.
Why a thinner middle makes the median jumpy
A median is simply the sale in the middle of the list. When the middle of Orinda's price range is lightly populated, small changes in how many homes close above and below it can move the median a long way.
Orinda's monthly sample is small to start with. In 2026 so far, monthly closings have ranged from 13 to 26. In February, 13 sales produced a $2,400,000 median. In August, 15 sales produced $1,650,000. In September, 18 sales produced $1,837,500. A $750,000 swing between February and August would be a dramatic repricing in a deep market. In Orinda it mostly shows that one month's closings were weighted toward estate properties and another month's were not.
Average price per square foot is steadier because it adjusts for the size of each home, and it shows something the median hides. Here are three snapshots from the same Bay East table:
- September 2025: $742 per square foot sold, 25 sales, $1,928,000 median
- Spring 2026, February through June: between $818 and $857 per square foot sold each month
- September 2026: $746 per square foot sold, 18 sales, $1,837,500 median
From September 2025 to September 2026, Orinda's sold price per foot moved by $4. Over the same period the median fell by about $90,000. The underlying value of a square foot in Orinda was flat over the year. The median dropped because of the mix of homes that closed, and the per-foot slide since spring matches the pattern of last fall.
The fall pattern Orinda already showed once
The previous fall gives this one a useful benchmark. In October 2025, Orinda had 47 active listings, average days on market reached 58, and the median fell to $1,574,375. Two months later, in December 2025, active inventory had dropped to 10 listings, and in January 2026 it was 11.
So late fall in Orinda brings slower sales and a lower median, followed by a sharp winter contraction in what is available. September 2026 sits at the start of that cycle. Active listings rose from 26 in August to 32. Average days on market fell from 39 to 28, and sale-to-list eased from 102 percent to 100 percent. Homes that are priced to the market are still selling at asking in about four weeks. The $790 average asking price per foot on active listings, set against $746 for closed sales, suggests that some of the 32 homes on the market are priced to the spring numbers.
Financing costs are pushing in the same direction. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed average at 7.40 percent as of October 15, 2026. At that rate, buyers in the $1.3 million to $2 million range, where financing usually decides how much a buyer can stretch, have a reason to hold out for the per-foot price that actually closed.
Lafayette and Moraga did not follow Orinda
This year's sales changes across the three Lamorinda towns are different enough that Orinda's numbers say little about the area as a whole. Bay East's September 2026 reports for Lafayette and Moraga show the contrast:
| September 2026 | Orinda | Lafayette | Moraga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $1,837,500 | $1,910,500 | $1,695,000 |
| Avg. sold $ per sq. ft. | $746 | $824 | $732 |
| Avg. days on market | 28 | 25 | 23 |
| Sale-to-list | 100% | 103% | 100% |
| Active listings | 32 | 37 | 15 |
| YTD sales, $1.3M to $1.999M, 2025 vs. 2026 | 86 → 57 | 77 → 86 | 42 → 47 |
| Total YTD sales, 2025 vs. 2026 | 183 → 162 | 204 → 226 | 73 → 95 |
Lafayette and Moraga both closed more homes than last year, and both added sales in the middle tier. Orinda went the other way on both counts. Bay East's Moraga figures include Canyon.
The per-foot numbers matter for anyone comparing towns. In September 2026, Orinda's sold price per foot was $14 above Moraga's and $78 below Lafayette's. A buyer who has ruled Orinda out because of its median may find that, measured by the foot, it currently prices closer to Moraga than to Lafayette.
Why Orinda's detached supply is unlikely to change soon
New construction will not fill in the missing middle any time soon. The largest project now moving forward is Vista Verde at 10 Irwin Way, where UrbanCore Development is sponsor and Brown Construction is general contractor. According to SF YIMBY, the project received its Notice to Proceed in September 2026 and is planned as 53 units: 52 affordable senior apartments plus a caretaker unit. It will add homes to Orinda, though none of them will be detached houses.
The broader downtown plan is on hold. Lamorinda Weekly reported in September 2026 that, to resolve a CEQA lawsuit brought by Orindans for Safe Emergency Evacuation, the city set aside its approval of the Downtown Precise Plan until a revised Environmental Impact Report is complete. In March 2025, the City Council adopted Resolution 14-25, which directs staff to consider revisions before any readoption. In practice, Orinda's detached supply this winter will come almost entirely from existing owners deciding whether to list. That is why the turnover patterns above are the main thing to watch.
How to read Orinda's numbers this fall
- Price from per-foot figures. Orinda's September 2026 sold average of $746 per square foot is essentially where September 2025 closed, at $742. A single month's median can move by hundreds of thousands of dollars without any change in what homes are worth.
- Treat the asking-to-sold gap as the opening negotiating range. Active listings averaging $790 per foot against $746 sold sets the starting distance in many conversations this season.
- Plan around the winter drop in inventory. Active listings fell from 47 to 10 between October and December last year. Buyers who wait for January may find fewer choices. Sellers who list in late fall compete with fewer homes, but they also face a slower clock than spring.
- Compare towns by the foot. Measured that way in September 2026, Orinda's position between Moraga and Lafayette looks different from what the medians suggest.
FAQ
Are Orinda home prices falling in 2026? The median is lower than a year ago, $1,837,500 in September 2026 against $1,928,000 in September 2025. Average sold price per square foot was nearly unchanged, at $746 against $742. Most of the drop in the median comes from which price bands closed.
Is the whole Lamorinda market losing middle-tier sales? Through September 2026, no. Year to date, Lafayette and Moraga both closed more homes in the $1.3 million to $2 million range than in 2025. Orinda closed 29 fewer.
When will October's figures be available? Bay East publishes monthly, and September 2026 is the most recent full month in its Orinda report. October's numbers will show whether this fall follows the slowdown of October 2025.
If you are pricing an Orinda home for a late-fall or early-2027 launch, or deciding whether Orinda's per-foot numbers make it worth a closer look against Lafayette and Moraga, the Anthony Riggins Team can go through band-by-band comparable sales with you and build a pre-marketing timeline around the winter inventory drop.
